Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Government Sets Economic Growth of 6.2 pct for 2009
Source: Antara News

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The government has set an assumed economic growth rate of 6.2 percent in the 2009 draft state budget (RAPBN) and hoped it could maintain the momentum of domestic economic growth amidst the looming global economic slowdown.

Speaking to the press after a plenary cabinet session at the State Secretariat here on Tuesday, acting Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Sri Mulyani said the macro assumptions adopted in the draft state budget were based on domestic and global economic situations.

"The assumptions which lay the basis for the drafting of the 2009 state budget are the inflation rate which is projected at 6.5 percent, interest on short-term promissory notes (SBI) for three-month deposits at 8.5 percent and the rupiah`s stable exchange rate against the dollar at Rp9,100," she said in a press conference following the cabinet session.

She said the assumed oil price was set at US$140 a barrel, well above US$95-120 a barrel as recommended by the House of Representatives (DPR).

Oil production was projected to reach 950,000 barrels per day, or the same as the ceiling recommended by the House with fuel oil consumption estimated at 38.9 million kiloliters, well above 35.5 million kiloliters quoted in the revised 2008 state budget, she said.

Gasoline consumption was estimated at 20.4 million kiloliters compared with 17 million kiloliters in the revised 2008 state budget, she said.

"Diesel oil consumption is expected to increase to 12.6 million kiloliters from 11 million kiloliters in the revised 2008 state budget," she said.

However, kerosene consumption was projected to fall to 5.8 million kiloliters owing to the kerosene-to-gas conversion program expected to slash kerosene consumption by 4 million kiloliters, she said.

"Based on the macro assumptions, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) next year is projected to increase to Rp5,295 trillion from Rp4,484 trillion in the revised 2008 state budget," she said.

Given the macro assumptions, the 2009 state budget would suffer a deficit of 1.5 percent of the GDP, or an equivalent of Rp78.8 trillion, she said.

The government has projected state receipts and expenditures next year at Rp1,158 trillion and Rp1,237 trillion respectively.

She said oil subsidy in 2009 was projected at Rp203.7 trillion and electricity subsidy at Rp84 trillion.