Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Still the One: SBY the Favorite for Next Poll
Source: The Jakarta Post
Adianto P. Simamora

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is still the most popular candidate for next year's presidential election, despite public dissatisfaction with his administration's economic record, a survey has found.

"Our respondents' view of Yudhoyono is completely different from what the media and experts say," the Indonesian Research and Development Institute (RDI) coordinator for external research, Hasan Nasbi, said Monday.

"About 45 percent of respondents still view the President as a strong figure who can solve urgent problems."

The Indonesian RDI conducted the survey between March 22 and March 30, with interviews of 2,600 people across the country.

About 80 percent of the respondents live in villages, and 90 percent of them earn less than Rp 1.5 million (US$163) per month.

Less than 3 percent of the respondents said they were interested in politics.

"Fifty percent of the respondents admitted they were not aware of the latest developments in national politics," Hasan said.

According to the survey, 70.5 percent of respondents are disappointed with staple food prices and 57 percent are unhappy with economic performance under Yudhoyono's leadership.

"We also found 55.9 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the government's program for reducing poverty and unemployment," Hasan said.

Nevertheless, Yudhoyono is still the favorite, according to the survey, which names presidential spokesman Andi Mallarangeng as an advisor to the Indonesian RDI.

Most respondents believe the President is better able to fix the country's weakening economy than other potential candidates, including former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengku Buwono X and Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

Experts have long criticized Yudhoyono for dragging his feet on crucial decisions such as fuel price hikes, the legal status of Islamic sect Jamaah Ahmadiyah and the nomination of Boediono as the new economic chief.

Most of those surveyed said they would give their vote to Yudhoyono if the presidential election were held today.

The survey also found Yudhoyono would reap 57.5 percent of vote in a head-to-head contest with Megawati, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

"If Yudhoyono were to compete directly against Kalla in a presidential election, the result would not be balanced, because about 77 percent of respondents said they would vote for Yudhoyono," Hasan said.

Other presidential hopefuls, including Hanura Party chairman Gen. (ret) Wiranto, former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso and the People's Consultative Assembly Speaker Hidayat Nur Wahid, were no match for Yudhoyono, the survey found.

Kalla remains the favorite for the position of vice president.

Syamsudin Haris, a political expert from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said Yudhoyono's popularity would wane once he announced an increase to fuel prices in response to the rising global price of oil, which has reached US$116.52 per barrel.

"It is still volatile because of economic issues. Yudhoyono's popularity is likely to fall if the government raises fuel prices because the policy would hurt the poor, whom the survey targeted," he said.

Political expert J. Kristiadi said the survey results would have been different if the respondents were from well-educated backgrounds.